International security in the world-system: A model of future dynamics

Abstract

Most studies of international security have been greatly influenced by the realist paradigm. Accordingly, scholars have assumed that the optimal means of understanding international conflict is to focus on the rational decisionmaking of leaders in presumably autonomous nations who pursue their interests in the relatively unstructured, anarchic world. This approach has been challenged by scholars adopting more structural perspectives. These scholars argue that global structures place economic and other constraints on the autonomy of national decisionmakers. Structures also change over time, thereby altering national interests. Accordingly, the optimal means of understanding international conflict is to focus on the single global system with its interrelated levels and dimensions of analysis. Even if national decisionmakers are the key actors on the international stage, and even if they operate rationally and autonomously, the complexity of their interactions can generate unintended consequences. Related to the theoretical dominance of realism has been a methodological problem. There has been preference for research based on static, cross-sectional methods, often using contemporary data, in order to discover 'what is'. Critics, however, have called for a more rational methodology. In particular, dynamic modelling has been proposed as a useful way to discover 'what can be'. Indeed, some scholars who have constructed dynamic models following the realist paradigm have shown that the theory can produce 'unrealistic' outcomes. This article attempts to conjoin these developments in theory and method by constructing a dynamic global model guided by world-systems theory (WST).