A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors

  • Divine D
  • Godtliebsen F
  • Rue H
ISSN: 1814-9359
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Abstract

Abstract. The paper proposes an approach to assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based series with chronological uncertainties. The method relies on approximation of the physical process(es) forming a proxy archive by a random Gamma process. Parameters of the process are partly data-driven and partly determined from prior assumptions. For a particular case of a linear accumulation model and absolutely dated tie points an analytical solution is found suggesting the Beta-distributed probability density on age estimates along the length of a proxy archive. In a general situation of uncertainties in the ages of the tie points the proposed method employs MCMC simulations of age-depth profiles yielding empirical confidence intervals on the constructed piecewise linear best guess timescale. It is suggested that the approach can be further extended to a more general case of a time-varying expected accumulation between the tie points. The approach is illustrated by using two ice and two lake/marine sediment cores representing the typical examples of paleoproxy archives with age models based on tie points of mixed origin.

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Divine, D. V., Godtliebsen, F., & Rue, H. (2012). A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors. Climate of the Past Discussions, 8(1), 31–61. Retrieved from http://www.clim-past-discuss.net/8/31/2012/

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