Modelling catchment-scale shallow landslide occurrence by means of a subsurface flow path connectivity index

Abstract

Abstract. Topographic index-based hydrological models have gained wide use to describe the hydrological control on the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the catchment scale. A common assumption in these models is that a spatially continuous water table occurs simultaneously at any point across the catchment. However, during a rainfall event isolated patches of subsurface saturation form above an impeding layer and hydrological connectivity of these patches is a necessary condition for lateral flow initiation at a point on the hillslope. Here, a new hydrological model is presented, which allows to account for the concept of hydrological connectivity while keeping the simplicity of the topographic index approach. A dynamic topographic index is used to describe the transient lateral flow that is established at a hillslope element when the rainfall amount exceeds a threshold value allowing for (a) development of a perched water table above an impeding layer, (b) hydrological connectivity between the hillslope element and its own upslope contributing area. A spatially variable soil depth is the main control of hydrological connectivity in the model. The hydrological model is coupled with the infinite slope stability model, and with a scaling model for the rainfall frequency-duration relationship to determine the return period of the critical rainfall needed to cause instability on three catchments located in the Italian Alps. The results show the good ability of our model in predicting observed shallow landslides. The model is finally used to determine local rainfall intensity-duration thresholds that may lead to shallow landslide initiation.