Predicting the impacts of ocean acidification: Challenges from an ecosystem perspective

Abstract

Predicting the impacts of Ocean Acidification is a science and societal priority for which modelling approaches provide an important methodology. Marine system responses to ocean acidification are complex and involve several mechanisms which impact a variety of marine processes and trophic interactions. Ecosystem evolution over the next decades will be driven by many factors including ocean acidification, climate change and modification to fishing pressures, pollution and eutrophication. It is proposed that a policy relevant ecosystem approach to ocean acidification requires a synergistic consideration of both the complexity of drivers and the complexity of responses, posing a significant challenge to existing model systems. Whilst current modelling approaches can make valuable contributions to predictive science, it is argued that developing methodologies including a hierarchy of simple and complex models and novel model paradigm, provides the optimal strategy for improving predictive capability. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.