Probabilistic Service Life Modelling of Ice Abrasion on Concrete Structures

Abstract

In arctic sea regions a concrete sea structure is subjected to heavy mechanical loads near the water level due to the moving ice sheets. On the basis of the theoretical considerations and literature as well as service life modelling and the problems involved, the effect of ice abrasion on service life for varying strength, cover depth and ice sheet movement were studied. Based on extensive extrapolation of the abrasion-strength relationships from Huovinen's data and lognormal distribution of the concrete strength, -cover and ice sheet movement, a fairly pessimistic service life prediction for UHPC was found. We therefore suggest more research on abrasion data for UHPC and on probabilistic service-life modelling.