Propagation of soil moisture memory to runoff and evapotranspiration

Abstract

As a key variable of the land-climate system soil moisture is a main driver of runoff and evapotranspiration under certain conditions. Soil moisture furthermore exhibits outstanding memory (persistence) characteristics. Also for runoff many studies report distinct low frequency variations that represent a memory. Using data from over 100 near-natural catchments located across Europe we investigate in this study the connection between soil moisture memory and the respective memory of runoff and evapotranspiration on different time scales. For this purpose we use a simple water balance model in which dependencies of runoff (normalized by precipitation) and evapotranspiration (normalized by radiation) on soil moisture are fitted using runoff observations. The model therefore allows to compute memory of soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration on catchment scale. We find considerable memory in soil moisture and runoff in many parts of the continent, and evapotranspiration also displays some memory on a monthly time scale in some catchments. We show that the memory of runoff and evapotranspiration jointly depend on soil moisture memory and on the strength of the coupling of runoff and evapotranspiration to soil moisture. Furthermore we find that the coupling strengths of runoff and evapotranspiration to soil moisture depend on the shape of the fitted dependencies and on the variance of the meteorological forcing. To better interpret the magnitude of the respective memories across Europe we finally provide a new perspective on hydrological memory by relating it to the mean duration required to recover from anomalies exceeding a certain threshold.