Structural change and intergenerational occupational mobility.

Abstract

The first part of the paper presents data on Kuwait, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The second part estimates an equation for predicting the proportion of employment in professional and technical occupations as a function of per capita income. The third part projects the occupational structure required in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to avoid downward intercohort and intergenerational occupational mobility, and it estimates the growth rate required between 1980 and 2000 to attain this structure. The fourth part interprets the results of the preceding section in light of demographic trends; evaluates the prospects for attaining undiminished occupational opportunities given trends in postsecondary school educational attainment. -from Author