Technology Foresight in Japan - The Potential and Implications of DELPHI Approach

Abstract

Many government organizations have conducted technology foresight in Japan. A consensus process was important to form national science and technology policy because administrative structure was decentralized and the industry had a large share of investment. This paper outlines Japanese technology foresight activities including Science and Technology Agency's Delphi that has a history of 30 years. Delphi approach's reliability is examined by chronological evaluation and international comparison. As for analysis of political implication, an importance index of Delphi is introduced and compared with a level of national R & D expenditure. Case studies on IT, environment, energy and life science show so significant correlation between two parameters that Delphi results could be utilized for priority settings.