Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on urolithiasis incidence across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021

Abstract

Background: Urolithiasis is a substantial public health concern, affects 10–15% of the world’s population and imposing significant health and economic burdens. The BRICS-plus nations (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, and Ethiopia) represent a block of countries with a fresh and invigorating approach to global health. This study aims to evaluate the epidemiological trends and geographic variations in the urolithiasis burden across these nations. Methods: Data on the number, all-age rate, age-standardized rate, and relative change in urolithiasis incidence from 1992 to 2021 within BRICS-plus were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021. Relationships between the age-standardized rate incidence and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were assessed using Pearson correlation analyses. Additionally, age-period-cohort modeling was employed to estimate net drift, local drift, age, period, and cohort effects over the past three decades. Results: From 1992 to 2021, total urolithiasis cases increased by 41.89%, while the age-standardized incidence rate decreased by 20.72%, globally. Most BRICS countries, excluding Russian Federation, exhibited a declining trend in the age-standardized incidence rate over the past three decades. Russian Federation registered the highest age-standardized incidence rate (3525.62 per 100,000 population) in 2021, whereas the most substantial reduction of 44.32% was observed in China. The annual net drift ranged between − 2.47% in China to 1.16% in Brazil among the ten countries. A significant positive correlation was found between the incidence rate of urolithiasis and SDI values. Countries exhibited similar age effect patterns, with rates showing an initial increase followed by a decrease with advancing age, along with varying period and cohort effects, indicative of differential control measures and temporal burden trends. Conclusion: The age-standardized incidence rate of urolithiasis showed an overall declining trend across the BRICS-plus from 1992 to 2021. Significant health inequalities persist among these nations, which might partially be attributed to disparities in socio-economic circumstances. Furthermore, our findings emphasize the necessity for targeted interventions across age, period, and cohort dimensions and can guide the design of tailored public health strategies for specific nations and demographics.