A Narrow Path to Victory: Robert Fico, Smer-SD, and the 2023 Elections in Slovakia

Abstract

Politicians whose political careers appear finished rarely make successful comebacks. Slovakia’s Robert Fico was propelled back to power when his party, Smer-SD, won the 2023 parliamentary elections and was able to form a coalition government. An election victory for Fico, however, seemed unthinkable in 2018 when he resigned as prime minister amid large-scale protests, and even more unlikely in 2020 when his party lost power, suffered a subsequent split, and slipped to single digits in the polls. Organizational and ideational resources provided a platform for recovery for Smer-SD and other parties to bounce back. Moreover, the chaotic nature of the government formed in 2020 and stark challenges posed by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine created conditions propitious for a comeback. Data from a specially commissioned survey conducted in the days after the election show campaign messaging around strong and effective leadership combined with policy pitches towards key demographic groups found a receptive audience. Although Smer-SD won a plurality of the vote, its ability to return to power was dependent on forging a coalition highlighting not just the pivotal nature of one of Smer-SD’s eventual partners in government, but also the mechanics of the electoral system that ensured Smer-SD’s other coalition partner crossed the electoral threshold. The 2023 elections demonstrate not just how divisive politicians like Fico can return to power, but also given the subsequent democratic erosion in Slovakia, they provide lessons for the study of democratic backsliding and resilience.