Why People Migrate: Testing Socio-Psychological Explanations of Migration Aspirations, Plans, Preparations, and Irregularity

Abstract

Why do some people want to migrate while others do not, and why are only some willing to do so irregularly? Existing explanations emphasise socio-demographic characteristics, political and economic contexts, and access to migrant networks. This article tests socio-psychological factors as predictors of variation in migration aspirations, plans, preparations, and irregularity willingness. Using original, nationally representative survey data from Montenegro, it tests the effects of personal values, risk aversion, self-efficacy, interpersonal trust, behavioural inhibition, and personality traits. In particular, individuals who value openness-to-change and self-enhancement and are less risk-averse are significantly more likely to express a desire to migrate, even when controlling for conventional predictors. Psychological factors play a more limited role in explaining the more behavioural plans and preparations, where structural and enabling factors dominate, consistent with the aspirations–capabilities framework, though perhaps reflecting statistical power. Willingness to migrate irregularly displays a largely distinct pattern of associations, particularly higher interpersonal trust and lower conscientiousness. Overall, the results suggest that psychology is particularly well suited to explaining why people want to migrate and how they would be willing to do so, while migration behaviour depends more heavily on capabilities.