How to End a War: Some Historical Lessons for Ukraine

Abstract

The Russian war against Ukraine is not untypical of historical precedent, ancient or recent, and indeed bears some resemblance to the multiple-step Sino-Japanese War - right down to the Kwantung Army’s insubordination, which is broadly analogous to the Wagner Group’s recent mutiny. The war began with a minimal-force invasion of Crimea, a Ukrainian region that Russia annexed in March 2014, followed by lethal proxy operations in parts of the Donbas, another Ukrainian region. The war against Ukraine is fundamentally a neo-imperial project of which, according to Putin, the ‘unity of the Russians and the Ukrainians’ is a precondition. A war of empire, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is also a colonial war in which the Ukrainians are effectively freedom fighters. Russia failed to achieve its stated purpose of taking political control of Ukraine. A four-day coup de main has morphed into a protracted major war.