The agro-meteorological perspective of drought over northwest Himalayas: Kashmir valley from 1979 to 2014

Abstract

Understanding the anatomy of drought is important to reduce the drought hazards in arid and semi-arid regions around the globe. This study pertains to disclose the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over the Kashmir region in all four seasons of a year (winter, spring, summer, and fall) along with Mann–Kendall trend analysis to provide a preferable insight into the rainfall excess and deficit years. We have used the daily precipitation data of five meteorological stations from 1969 to 2014 over the study area. The standard precipitation index (SPI) has been manipulated to investigate the pitfalls of drought years on the agricultural and horticulture production of the Kashmir region. The analysis reveals that the spring season experiences maximum rainy days showing a decreasing trend and the year 1992, as the poorest rainfall year. The following years (1970, 1971, 1977, 1992, 1999, 2000, and 2001) were found to be under-drought with variation in intensity from moderate to extreme over the whole study region. The implications of drought on agriculture have been visible as the drought years have constricted apple and the total production, which in turn drastically harmed the economy of the valley since it is mainly boosted by apple production. This study will help to plan and design the water resource system in such a way as to decrease the potential effect of future drought years on the economy of the valley.