'Ice sheet conservation' and international discord: Governing (potential) glacial geoengineering in Antarctica

Abstract

Should current unmitigated emissions continue, there is a growing chance of collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, one of the planetary climate tipping points at greatest risk of being crossed. Such a collapse would subject the world to an increase of several metres in average global sea-level rise over just a few centuries. In this context, there is an academic debate about the potential of supporting glacial stability through artificial infrastructures such as an undersea 'curtain'. However, this 'ice sheet conservation' would come with significant yet unforeseeable technical and environmental risks. Moreover, in this debate governance risks have been either neglected or understated. We argue that the proposed infrastructures could negatively implicate the 'peaceful purposes only' obligation enshrined in the Antarctic Treaty. By affecting contentious areas of Antarctic geopolitics, such as authority, sovereignty and security, there is a significant risk that the project would make the Antarctic 'the scene or object of international discord'. Even if the ice curtain idea were to be technically feasible and environmentally harmless, it would still create significant political and legal challenges for the current governance arrangements in the Antarctic.