Adapting the Demographic Transition in Preparation for the Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake

Abstract

Demographic transition has been widely discussed but rarely examined in the disaster research context. With the anticipated Tokai-Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake becoming an issue, we are developing adaptation strategies targeting enhancing resilience against and reducing vulnerability to this potential threat. Using mesh-based population estimation in cohort component analysis, we are characterizing the current and 2030 populations into sustainable, dependent, and marginal demographic transition patterns to discuss the impact of demographic transition. Specific to each area of certain demographic transition and seismicity exposure, and wide-area management, we suggest 4 adaptation strategies – business continuity planning, regional vitalization, community-capability reinforcement, and wide-area management – for improving current management.