Risk methods and their applications in agriculture

Abstract

In agriculture we face several decision problems in which, among proficiency and sustainability, the risk aspects have to be investigated more and more seriously. In Hungary the risk of production is especially meaningful as it has considerably been increased in the last few decades. In this paper we review those risk analysis methods which are very useful in climate change impact research. We give a case study of the application of the described methods in which we prove that the risk of corn and wheat production has increased between 1951 and 1990 in four Hungarian regions (Hajdú-Bihar, Bács-Kiskun, Fejér and Györ-Moson-Sopron), independently to the rate of absolute risk aversion. In some regions the rate of increase became even quicker. © 2008, Penkala Bt.