Deskripsi dan analisis penyebaran penyakit mers melalui sistem reaksi difusi

Abstract

This research is conducted related to the outbreak of Mers disease in Middle East since 2012 and even became outbreak also in Korea in 2015. In fact, as of December 2017, there is still new case of Mers infection which reported to WHO as there is no vaccine yet to avoid human from the virus. Based on data from WHO, as many as 2,122 cases of Mers have happened as of December 2017 and about 35% of total cases have been died. Due to that, in this article, the mathematical model with the form of reaction diffusion and kinetic equations in system of partial differential equations (PDE) is created, related to the Mers disease spreading in human population in epidemic area which involve quarantine action to the infected individual. Then, the existence of traveling wave solution of the sistem is investigated and the speed of virus spreading is analyzed. Based on the sistem and value of parameters used, it’s obtained that the value of basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.2 which means that Mers becomes epidemic in population. Besides, it is also obtained that the minimum wave speed is 2.09 km/day. Through the sensitivity analysis of wave speed, the conclusion is that it is necessary to quarantine the infected individual soon to control the speed of Mers spreading. The traveling wave solution finally can be performed through numerical simulation by using FTCS (Forward Time Center Space) method.