Impact of Non-Performing Loans on Credit Growth in the Banking Industry in Tanzania: 2009 – 2018

Abstract

This study adopted descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis in investigating the impact of Non-Performing Loans (NPL) on credit growth to private sector in Tanzania, apart from NPL. The study also investigated the influence of interest rates, inflation rates and GDP on credit advancement to private sector in Tanzania. Using multiple linear regression analysis the study found that both NPL and interest rates have negative impact on the credit growth to private sector in Tanzania, with coefficient values of -0.323 and -0.263 for NPL and interest rate respectively. Furthermore, the study also found that Inflation rate and GDP growth rate have positive impact on the credit growth to private sector in Tanzania with coefficients of 0.247and 0.156 for inflation rate and GDP growth rate respectively. The study found that NPL has a significant negative impact on the credit growth by commercial bank to private sector in Tanzania. These results suggest that the central bank should continue to closely monitor and control the level of NPL in the economy and confine it below the threshold of 5% as stipulated by the BOT and IMF. The study also recommends that commercial banks should ensure that a thorough credit risk assessment is conducted when advancing loans to private sector.