Forecasting The Number of Aircraft Passengers at Juanda International Airport Using Exponential Smoothing Event-Based Method

Abstract

The number of airplane passengers increases at certain times, such as Eid al-Adha, Eid al-Fitr, and Christmas holidays. Of course, an excessive rise in the number of passengers can cause extreme flight traffic density, which can cause flight delays, decreased airport service level performance, and other impacts. This study predicts the number of aircraft passengers at Juanda International Airport using the Exponential Smoothing Event-Based method. The Exponential Smoothing Event-Based method is a forecasting method that considers special events using the Exponential Smoothing method as the initial calculation. This study uses data on the number of passengers from January 2014 to December 2020. From the forecasting model, MAPE is 11.8905%, and MSE is 4202958561.0706, so that the resulting forecast can be categorized as good.