Assessing Multiplier Effects of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth in Nepal: SVAR Model Analysis

Abstract

Expansionary public expenditure is a popular important fiscal measure in the constraint of budgetary resources to achieve higher economic growth with the expectation of higher multiplier effect on productive sectors in the world. Since the actual multiplier effect contradicts with the expected multiplier effect in this discretionary fiscal practice, the goal of higher economic growth is not well achieved. In this context, the practice of public expenditure is a key concern of scholars to understand whether it is the best one or whether its multiplier effect is higher. In this context, this study is an important attempt. This paper assesses the multiplier effects of public expenditures on economic growth in Nepal, covering time series data sets of public expenditures and economic growth from 1974-75 to 2018-19 by using the structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR) model. As a result of the SVAR model, the multiplier effect of public expenditure, recurrent expenditure, and capital expenditure is positive for economic growth. In the results, the multiplier effect of recurrent expenditure is found to be more promising than capital expenditure for economic growth in the short run, but in the long run, it is lower. Similarly, the multiplier coefficient value of capital expenditure is lower in the short run. This is probably due to leakages in the economy, corruption and improper management of development funds, seasonal expenditure trends, and poor management of development projects. Thus, public expenditure is an important fiscal measure to developing economy like Nepal to create a multiplier effect through aggregate demand on national income and employment. Therefore, the government should improve the efficiency of public expenditure and the ratio of capital expenditure and private investment to improve the higher multiplier variable in the long run. The result of this paper will be a valuable input to the policymaker and the planner of Nepal to improve the efficiency of public expenditure through the implementation of a mid-term expenditure framework.