Modelo de predicción de costos en servicios de salud soportado en simulación discreta

Abstract

A model to support decision making about health service is proposed. Discrete simulation has been used, evaluating different scenarios of health service delivered by an Institution of Health Services (IHS): general medical consultation, emergency, hospitalization and catastrophic diseases, among others. The model was developed so any IHS can simulate typical cost of service for one year using indicators from national health statistics adjusting values to the specific behavior of the HIS. The results obtained with the model have revealed that the costing approach is effective, and that the national average values of certain parameters must be modified for each case. Otherwise, important errors can be introduced in the budget when the variations of these parameters are not included.