Toward the dynamic modeling of transition problems: The case of electric mobility

Abstract

Transportation systems are transitioning to e-mobility, but scholars and policymakers are struggling to understand how to accomplish this transition effectively. In response, we draw on the technological innovation systems perspective and the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology to develop a theory-guided and entity-based simulation model to better understand, among others, electric vehicle (EV) adoption processes as a specific yet core element driving business innovation. By doing so, our model is among the first to capture and combine the macro-and micro-level interactions associated with the EV transition process. Our simulation results shed light on the impact of alternative innovation policies, notably by explaining relations between EV market dynamics and changes in e-mobility policies, such as EV-related subsidies and resource mobilization. As such, the simulation modeling approach adopted in this paper enables a more in-depth study of transition problems related to e-mobility. Notably, the resulting modular model can be adjusted to other e-mobility transition problems by changing the specified entities.