What Determines Attitudes Toward the Consequences of the Reception of Refugees in Germany? Results from the GESIS Panel 2016

Abstract

The so-called “refugee crisis” is one of the dominating issues in Western Europe and is associated with increasingly successful right-wing populist parties and movements. Moreover, the German population seems to be divided on whether receiving refugees brings more opportunities or more risks for Germany. This article analyzes the underlying reasons for an optimistic or pessimistic view of the consequences of incoming refugees. Following the three prominent theoretical perspectives in the comparative research on anti-immigrant attitudes, we test the influence of socio-economic determinants, cultural determinants (ethnocentrism and social trust) as well as the influence of contact with refugees. The basis for the data is the GESIS Panel 2016. Social trust, ethnocentrism, and contact seem to be key predictors. In particular, ethnocentrism has a strong effect on attitudes toward the consequences of accepting refugees into Germany. Social trust apparently has a less direct, or rather an indirect effect, mediated by ethnocentrism.