Maximum tsunami height prediction using pressure gauge data by a Gaussian process at Owase in the Kii Peninsula, Japan

Abstract

We constructed a model to predict the maximum tsunami height by a Gaussian process (GP) that uses pressure gauge data from the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) in the Nankai trough. We found a greatly improved generalization error of the maximum tsunami height by our prediction model. The error is about one third of that by a previous method, which tends to make larger predictions, especially for large tsunami heights (>10 m). These results indicate that GP enables us to get a more accurate prediction of tsunami height by using pressure gauge data.