Estimates of Power Shortages and Affected Populations during the Initial Period of the Ukrainian-Russian Conflict

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict on 24 February 2022, Ukraine’s economy, society, and cities have been devastated and struck on multiple fronts, with large numbers of refugees fleeing to neighboring countries. The lighting systems in Ukrainian cities have been severely restricted due to Russian missile bombing and curfew policies. The power shortages adversely affected the livelihoods of the Ukrainian residents dramatically. For a timely assessment of the power shortages’ extent and the affected population in Ukraine, this study tracked the dynamics of nighttime light emissions in Ukraine based on the newly developed daily Black Marble product (VNP46A2) from NASA. The results show that the average light radiance in Ukrainian urban areas has decreased by about 37% since the eruption of the war, with Kiev city being the most dramatic region, having a post-conflict decrease of about 51%. In addition, by introducing near-real-time population data, we have implemented a survey of the affected population in Ukraine suffering from war-induced power shortages. Estimates show that about 17.3 million Ukrainian residents were affected by power shortages. In more detail, the number of children under 10 years old was about 2.35 million (about 5.24% of the total population), while the number of elderly people over 60 years old was about 3.53 million (about 7.86% of the total population). Generally, the results of this study could contribute positively to the timely assessment of the impact of the conflict and the implementation of humanitarian relief.