Coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic doubling time in the United States before and during stay-at-home restrictions

Abstract

Background. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly in the United States since January 2020. Methods. We estimated mean epidemic doubling time, an important measure of epidemic growth, nationally, by state, and in association with stay-at-home orders. Results. The epidemic doubling time in the United States was 2.68 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.30-3.24 days) before widespread mitigation efforts, increasing by 460% to 15 days (12.89-17.94 days) during the mitigation phase. Among states without stay-at-home orders, the median increase in doubling time was 60% (95% CI, 9.2-223.3), compared with 269% (95% CI, 277.0-394.0) for states with stay-at-home orders. Conclusions. Statewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time.