Small increases in material stocks to achieve decent living standards globally

Abstract

Global inequalities in resource use leave billions below decent living standards (DLS)—a proposal of universal minimum service levels required to meet essential human needs. Although research has examined the energy use and greenhouse gas emission implications of achieving universal DLS, little is known about the necessary expansion of societies’ material stocks in buildings, infrastructure and machinery. Here we estimate that closing global DLS gaps would require an increase of approximately 12% in the existing material stocks of society, if efforts to expand these stocks are devoted exclusively to meet DLS. At current construction rates, this could be accomplished by 2030. However, if historical trends of unequal growth of material stocks driven by demands beyond DLS persist, the material stock requirements for DLS could increase tenfold, risking the achievement of sustainable development and climate change mitigation goals. To achieve DLS for all while limiting environmental pressures, it is essential to prioritize expansion of material stocks for closing DLS gaps and to critically asses stock expansion for demands beyond DLS—especially in affluent regions. Such a strategy could ensure universal DLS at more sustainable resource use levels.