Modelling an outbreak of an emerging pathogen

Abstract

To illustrate the usefulness of mathematical models to the microbiology and medical communities, we explain how to construct and apply a simple transmission model of an emerging pathogen. We chose to model, as a case study, a large (<8,000 reported cases) on-going outbreak of community-acquired meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) in the Los Angeles County Jail. A major risk factor for CA-MRSA infection is incarceration. Here, we show how to design a within-jail transmission model of CA-MRSA, parameterize the model and reconstruct the outbreak. The model is then used to assess the severity of the outbreak, predict the epidemiological consequences of a catastrophic outbreak and design effective interventions for outbreak control.