Effect of climate change on maize yield in the growing season: A case study of the Songliao Plain maize belt

Abstract

Based on the 1965-2017 climate data of 18 meteorological stations in the Songliao Plain maize belt, the Coupled Model Intercomparision Project (CMIP5) data, and the 1998-2017 maize yield data, the drought change characteristics in the study area were analyzed by using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Mann-Kendall mutation test; furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors, drought index, and maize climate yield was determined. Finally, the maize climate yields under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios were predicted. The results revealed that: (1) from 1965 to 2017, the study area experienced increasing temperature, decreasing precipitation, and intensifying drought trends; (2) the yield of the study area showed a downward trend from 1998 to 2017. Furthermore, the climate yield was negatively correlated with temperature, positively correlated with precipitation, and positively correlated with SPEI-1 and SPEI-3; and (3) under the 1.5 °C and the 2.0 °C global warming scenarios, the temperature and the precipitation increased in the maize growing season. Furthermore, under the studied global warming scenarios, the yield changes predicted by multiple regression were -7.7% and -15.9%, respectively, and the yield changes predicted by one-variable regression were -12.2% and -21.8%, respectively.