Beyond turnover time: Constraining the lifetime distribution of water vapor from simple and complex approaches

Abstract

The time water vapor spends in the atmosphere from evaporation to precipitation, termed here the water vapor lifetime, is of fundamental relevance for characterizing the water cycle, for the turnover of mass and energy, causes of precipitation extremes, and the recycling of precipitation over land. While the global average lifetime of water vapor is commonly considered as about 8–10 days, recent work indicates that the distribution of water vapor lifetimes is highly skewed, and that a large part of the water vapor could have average lifetimes of about 4–5 days. Besides calling for scrutiny of these new estimates, these findings also prompt an investigation of the factors shaping the distribution of the lifetime of water vapor. Using idealized setups and reanalysis data, I explore the influence of heterogeneity and nonstationarity on water vapor age and lifetime. The combination of nonstationarity and heterogeneity allows for short and long local lifetimes and water vapor ages, while maintaining the global average mass balance and corresponding mean water vapor lifetime. A plausibility argument based on humidity-weighted winds suggests that median lifetimes of 4–5 days are more consistent with weather system patterns in the extratropics. I propose that the median of the lifetime is more representative, since its mean value is affected by uncertainty originating from a long, thin tail. To more comprehensively understand the water vapor lifetime, methods will need to report the full lifetime distribution. Simulations with artificial water tracers could thereby provide the framework to compare different methods consistently in the future, while stable water isotopes could serve as an observational constraint.