Change and prediction of land cover/use change in South Lampung Regency

Abstract

Land use/cover is one of the important factors in land management. The land use/cover changes can affect the policy in an area. Land use/cover in South Lampung Regency is potentially changed because of economic, social, and populations aspect. This research aimed to analyze the spatial change of land use/cover in the South Lampung Regency period 2007-2019 and to predict land use/cover of 2031. The analysis was carried out applying cellular automata Markov chain of land cover spatial model. The result showed that Kappa for image classification was 0.86. Dominant land cover type in South Lampung Regency was plantation field of 35.47%-36.18%. Model validation of 2031 predicted land cover was 0.946, while the types of land cover that increase in 2031 were built-up area and paddy field of 96.8% and 86.5%, respectively, while paddy fields, forest, moor, the body of water, plantation, shrub decreased approximately 16.2%, 14.9%, 13%, 7.7%, 4.1%, and 1.0%. Paddy field that had the most area of decline as prediction results of 16.2%.