Research and institutional priorities for assessing hydroclimate risks to Murray-Darling Basin Plan outcomes

Abstract

The Murray-Darling Basin Plan is designed to promote sustainable outcomes for Basin industries, communities and the environment. Climate change threatens these outcomes, but current risk assessment approaches are insufficient for comprehensive understanding and robust adaptation. Drawing on a review of the methodology informing the 2026 Basin Plan Review (the Sustainable Yields 2 project), we provide guidance for long-term improvements to hydroclimatic modelling and risk assessment capability. We critique current approaches, highlighting their reliance on limited causal pathways, and advocate for a more holistic approach that combines multiple lines of evidence to inform risk and vulnerability assessment. We emphasise the need to address climate non-stationarity, extreme events, and interconnected risks while incorporating diverse knowledge systems, including First Nations insights. For basin-scale modelling, we recommend improvements to current modelling frameworks, enhancements to data governance, and institutionalisation of robust risk assessment processes. Fostering adaptive governance and investing in technical capacity will help transition towards proactive, inclusive, and resilient basin planning that better manages long-term climate and non-climate risks and safeguards Basin Plan outcomes.