Relationship between aging population, birth rate and disposable income per capita in the context of COVID-19

Abstract

The outbreak of the COVID-19 in early 2020 and the recurring epidemic in later years have disturbed China’s economy. Moreover, China’s demographic dividend has been disappearing due to its fastest aging population and declining birth rate. The birth rates in eastern provinces of China are much lower than those of the western provinces. Considering the impacts of the COVID-19 and aging population, this paper focused on the relationship between birth rate and the disposable income and tried to find effective measures to raise China’s birth rate. We discovered through regression analysis that the link between per capita disposable income and birth rate is initially "reverse J" and later "inverted J", indicating that per capita disposable income will influence the birth rate. Women’s employment rate and educational level are negatively correlated with the birth rate. To raise the fertility rate in China, it is necessary to increase the marriage rate and the willingness to have children by raising the per capita disposable income and introducing effective tax relief policies.