Prediction of Passenger Growth Distribution in Eastern Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to project the growth of the number of passengers at major ports in Indonesia during the period 2022 to 2032 using a time series approach based on the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). Historical data on sea passenger arrivals and departures from 2017 to 2021 obtained from the Directorate General of Sea Transportation and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) are the basis for the analysis. The results of the study show a significant growing trend in several strategic ports, such as Tanjung Perak Port, which is projected to experience a growth of 169.91%, from 525,352 passengers in 2022 to 1,418,450 passengers in 2032. Likewise, Benoa, Balikpapan, and Kupang Ports also recorded substantial increases. The practical implications of these findings can be utilized by policymakers for better port infrastructure development planning, including increasing terminal capacity, supporting facilities, and land transportation connectivity. On the theoretical side, this study contributes to the development of maritime transportation demand modeling literature by integrating quantitative prediction methods based on historical data. Future research could explore the impacts of climate change on maritime transport operations, including disruptions from extreme weather and sea level rise. In addition, the role of digitalization, such as the implementation of smart ports, automation of loading and unloading, and integration of information systems across modes of transport, is also a relevant area of study.