Relapse prediction: A meteorology-inspired mobile model

Abstract

Predicting relapses to binge drinking in non-dependent drinkers may now be possible with smartphones. Smartphones have been shown to help individuals reduce their drinking and may help binge drinkers accelerate that process. Predicting the weather has improved greatly over the past 50 years, but predicting a binge drinking episode may be less difficult. It is hypothesized that the number of factors with high predictive value for any particular individual may not be large. Collecting data over time, a smartphone should be able to learn which combination of factors has a high probability of leading to an episode of binge drinking.