From digital diplomacy to AI-driven diplomacies? Mapping the potential impact of AI on Diplomacy

Abstract

The rapid and consecutive launch of artificial intelligence applications over the past 3 years has led digital diplomacy scholars to envision the future of artificial intelligence–driven diplomacy. This article argues that while such visions are enthralling, they are also highly speculative. To better examine how artificial intelligence may impact diplomacy, this article employs an extensive analysis of digital diplomacy scholarship. By analyzing digital diplomacy studies published over the past 12 years, this article identifies the societal, institutional, and economic factors that ultimately shape how diplomats employ digital technologies. This article suggests that these factors may lead to three scenarios of artificial intelligence–driven diplomacies: a “De-evolution scenario,” in which diplomats are reduced to data gatherers, an “Augmentation scenario,” where artificial intelligence insight enables diplomats to better manage crises, and a “Virtuality scenario,” where artificial intelligence and virtual reality facilitate interpersonal communication and negotiations between diplomats. This article also outlines two inherent paradoxes that may limit the use of artificial intelligence in diplomacy: a temporal paradox and an uncertainty paradox. Through these three scenarios and two paradoxes, this article illustrates the contours of artificial intelligence–driven diplomacy.