A Two-Stage Bayesian Sequential Assessment of Exploratory Hypotheses

Abstract

Separating confirmatory and exploratory analyses is vital for ensuring the credibility of research results. Here, we present a two-stage Bayesian sequential procedure that combines a maximum of exploratory freedom in the first stage with a strictly confirmatory regimen in the second stage. It allows for flexible sampling schemes and a statistically coherent carry-over of information from the exploratory to the confirmatory stage. We believe that this procedure will facilitate preregistration as well as the formulation of precise hypotheses in the field of psychology and can be integrated elegantly into the registered report publishing framework. We demonstrate the methodology with a simulated application example from the field of social neuroscience.