Predicting growth of city's built-up land based on scenario planning

Abstract

In this paper, method of scenario planning is applied to the study of land use planning, putting forward a new approach to analyze future growth of city's built-up land in the context of future uncertainty. By introducing economic and policy factors into land use system, a calculation model of urban built-up land is built based on the correlation between industries and land use. And using Chongqing Municipality from China as an example, we establish 6 different scenarios and simulate future development of city's land use from 2015 to 2020 under each scenario. The results indicate that Chongqing will meet fast urban expansion according to current trend and is in urgent need to improve its land use efficiency which shows strongest effect in controlling city size.