Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Geographic Distribution of Fritillaria imperialis L. (Liliaceae) (Turkey)

Abstract

Fritillaria imperialis is a bulbous plant that has increased commercial value and contributes to rural development in Turkey. It is widely utilized in traditional medicine and pharmacy, and has great potential for use in modern pharmaceuticals in the future. As the effects of climate change on this plant have not been documented, this study aimed to understand how climate change might affect F. imperialis. The methodology of the study was divided into three steps: (i) database development, including the current distribution zones of F. imperialis and climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation data; (ii) determination of the plant’s temperature and precipitation requirements; and (iii) Ecocrop’s plant climate suitability modeling (PCSM). As a result of the study, it was determined that climatic suitability would decrease below 20% in the plant’s current distribution area between 2,000 m and 3,000 m altitude. For the zones between 500–1,000 m altitude, the climatic suitability will be as high as 100%. Although there are zones where climatic suitability will increase by 2070, the general trend shows that suitability will decrease. This change in the plant ecosystem is explained by the decreased winter precipitation and snowfall but increased temperature and evaporation at higher altitudes. Fritillaria imperialis is expected to shift its geographic distribution to lower altitudes because of climate change.