Approach Draft to Evaluate the Transport System State—A Case Study Regarding the Estimation Ratio Model of Transport Supply and Demand

Abstract

The article suggests a system dynamics model for estimating the demand for public transport. Traditional scientific and technical transport modeling approaches involve coherent systems, meticulously considering other impactful variables for transport modeling. The vastness of the variables and their combinations hinder us from grasping all possible system interactions. This research aims at proposing a model that comprises decisive factors in relation to the supply and demand in various modes of transport, designing likely scenarios of the transport system development in a specific transport territory. The model uses system dynamics tools to explore the interaction between individual system elements and transport subsystems. A wise choice of crucial system elements, well-adjusted relationships and behavior settings, as well as system dynamics tools, allow for a considerable simplification of an otherwise complex system. The article works with a principle of stock and flow diagrams for forecasting supply and demand in public transport. We take into consideration the implementation of a ‘demand index’ in public and car passenger transport with a subsequent comparison. This innovative approach monitors the development of a regional or municipal transport system while assessing its sustainability. Suggested demand indexes may serve as indicators for a sustainable municipal system. The suggested model reflects data from the South Bohemian region in the Czech Republic and may involve other elements and indicators of a sustainable transport system.