Indifference analysis: A practical method to assess uncertainty in IPM decision making

Abstract

Since the publication of the integrated control concept (Stern et al. 1959), integrated pest management (IPM) has been based upon the principle of rational decision making with knowledge of plant-pest interactions and economic tradeoffs. In addition, although the determination of economic-injury levels and other decision benchmarks have been extraordinarily helpful with the application of IPM principles, they often are fixed, when, in fact, the situation-specific circumstances require a more dynamic approach. Moreover, in situations for which preventive control measures are preferred or required, there has been little guidance for decision makers on how to quantify payoffs to their control options. This paper introduces an approach referred to as indifference analysis, a simple and straightforward practitioner approach to support decision making in IPM programs when outcomes are unknown. The concept is based upon a basic 2 ×2 payoff matrix of prospective financial outcomes for pest management decisions taken with uncertain outcomes. Two case studies are presented to illustrate the use of indifference analysis. For each case, an indifference point is determined that provides transparency regarding the relative financial risk of various management options, leading to insights for selecting tactics under uncertainty. This approach may enlighten decision makers in choosing their IPM practices when outcomes are unknown and uncertain.