Dynamic simulation of water resources sustainable utilization of Kiamusze based on system dynamics

Abstract

In order to determine the sustainable supporting capacity of current Kiamusze water utilization situation to future society and economy, a dynamic simulation model of water resources sustainable utilization was built based on system dynamics (SD). The simulation results indicated that current Kiamusze water resources could not satisfy future demand of industrial and agricultural production and also restricted socioeconomic development. In view of the situation, the water resources sustainable utilization schemes were designed and simulated by targeting water supply and demand balance and adjusting sensitive parameters of the model. The analysis showed that the coordinated scheme not only realized water resources sustainable utilization but also enhanced the sustainable supporting capacity of water resources to society and economy within the fixed number of simulating years. Thus, the coordinated scheme is the best one for water resources sustainable utilization of Kiamusze and can provide policy guidance for further exploitation of regional water resources. © 2013 IFIP International Federation for Information Processing.