Development of small hydropower in China 1990-2015: Province-domain patterns of temporal-spatial evolution

Abstract

At present, no quantitative method has been developed to analyze province-level data of small hydropower development in China. Knowledge of its temporal-spatial patterns can be conducive to predicting and planning for its future. For this reason, the study sets out to approach it as two problems: Development level evaluation and spatial distribution. Specifically, panel data of provinces or equivalent administrative units were used to establish an evaluation system covering the fields of economy, society, eco-environment, and resources; an evaluation model was formulated using the entropy weight technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method and theory of coupling coordination; its trends were discovered by regression analysis; the spatial distribution model was built by clustering analysis and center of gravity analysis. Results indicate that, during the 1990-2015 period, while small hydropower developed to their respective steady-state levels, some gaps still exist in the general trend of small hydropower among provinces. The center of gravity of small hydropower development displayed a movement toward the Northwest. Based on clustering of scores in the four dimensions and coupled coordination, its spatial distributions can be divided into three zones: Highly coordinated, relatively coordinated, and uncoordinated, and its temporal patterns can be described as three stages: Rise with fluctuations, unbalanced and uncoordinated development, and steady rise. Policy suggestions are provided on this basis.