Will COVID-19 cases in the world reach 4 million? A forecasting approach using suttearima

Abstract

This study aimed to determine whether COVID-19 cases in the world would have reached 4 million cases with the SutteARIMA method forecasting approach. Data from this study were obtained from the Worldometer data from 01 March 2020 to 05 May 2020. Data were used to perform data fitting from 01 March 2020 to 28 April 2020 (29 April 2020-05 May 2020). The data fitting is used to examine the extent of the accuracy of the SutteARIMA method in predicting the data. To examine the level of the data accuracy, the MAPE method was used in this study. Results of forecasting data for the period of 29 April 2020 to 05 May 2020: 72,731; 84,666; 92,297; 100,797; 84,312; 81,517; 74845. The accuracy of SutteARIMA for the period of 30 April 2020-06 May 2020 was 0.069%. The forecasting results that had been obtained were 4 million cases, namely from 08 May 2020 to 10 May 2020: 3,966,786; 4,047,328 and 4,127,747. The SutteARIMA method predicted that 4 million cases of COVID-19 in the world will be reported on the WHO situation report on day 110/111 or 09 May 2020/10 May 2020.