Tropical monsoon rainfall can be predicted with lead times up to 10 months

Abstract

Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional dynamics, global climate drivers, large-scale teleconnections, and inherent non-stationarities in the climate system. Here, we introduce a unified network-based framework for predicting monsoon precipitation across diverse tropical regions. By leveraging global 2-meter air temperature fields, this approach captures large-scale climate teleconnections, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Rossby waves, enabling accurate forecasts for four key monsoon systems: the South American, East Asian, West African, and Indian monsoons. Our framework achieves remarkable forecasting accuracy with lead times of 4-10 months, outperforming traditional systems such as Seasonal Forecast System 5 and Climate Forecast System version 2. Beyond its predictive capabilities, the framework offers flexibility for application to other regions and climate phenomena, advancing our understanding of global climate dynamics. These findings have far-reaching implications for disaster preparedness, resource management, and sustainable development.