Using Fuzzy Time Series Models to Estimate the Cost of Benefits of Egyptian Social Insurance System

Abstract

In recent years, many methods have been proposed to forecast data in different fields based on successful fuzzy time series models (FTS). Egyptian social insurance systems (SISs) need support to optimally define and estimate yearly total benefits (pensions), which helps the actuaries who are responsible for the system make optimal decisions. Given that the total benefits have not been forecasted before by prediction methods, this paper proposes FTS models by Chen, Cheng, Yu, and Song to forecast Egyptian social insurance benefits, proposes Huarng for appropriate partition lengths, and constructs the interval length using the difference in the transformation data method, given that the data has not been stationary in recent years and has increased significantly. The proposed approach is based on experiments implemented using four models with interval length partitions of 5, 10, 50, 100, and Huarng partitions of 465. The results show great progress in the performance of yearly benefit forecasting, especially in the Chen model with a Huarng 465 partition, which has high accuracy prediction with low error when training and testing data.