The Determinants of Birth Interval in Ahvaz-Iran: A Graphical Chain Modelling Approach

Abstract

Birth interval is a major determinant of the rates of fertility. In this paper a graphical modelling approach is used to study the effect of different socioeconomic factors on birth intervals of children in Ahvaz-Iran. This approach provides an easily interpretable empirical description and illustrates explicitly the conditional independence structure between each pair of variables. The interpretation can be read directly from a mathematical graph. Besides examining the direct association of each determinant on birth interval, we also examine the effects of socioeconomic determinants on intermediate determinants to understand the pathways through which the socioeconomic determinants affect the birth interval. The data analysed come from a sample of women referred to "Health and Medical Centres" during October and November 2002.