Future Changes in the Frequency and Destructiveness of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over East Asia Projected by High-Resolution AGCMs

Abstract

Future changes in the frequency and destructiveness of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) over East Asia were investigated by analyzing the simulations of two high-resolution (20–25-km) atmospheric general circulation models forced by sea surface temperature (SST) in the present period (1979–2003) and under future warming conditions (2075–2099) of the RCP8.5 scenario. The present-day simulations capture well the genesis count, tracks, and intensity associated with TCs striking the coastal areas of Taiwan-East China (TWCN), the South China Sea-Indochina (SCS) and the vicinity of Japan (JP). The frequency of landfalling TCs over TWCN, SCS, and JP is projected to nearly half by the end of the 21st century. However, these landfalling TCs induce enhanced destructive threats of stronger winds and heavier precipitation under the future warmer climate. Through attribution analysis we found the reduced frequency of landfalling TCs to be mainly caused by a decline in TC genesis count (rather than TC track changes), while the increased intensity of landfalling TCs is linked with changes in the TC intensification rate (as opposed to duration changes). Diagnoses of the genesis potential index and eddy energetics further suggest that the mid-tropospheric drying and weakened synoptic-scale eddy activity resulting from anticyclonic and downward circulations over the main TC genesis region create an unfavorable environment for TC genesis. In contrast, warmer SST, reduced vertical wind shear and enhanced efficiency of eddy kinetic energy generations appear over the regions before TC landfall, resulting in a more rapid intensification of TCs that later approach the coastal areas.