Modeling Dengue Fever Cases by Using GSTAR(1;1) Model with Outlier Factor

Abstract

Dengue fever is an endemic disease transmitted through the Aedes Aegypti mosquitos. Dengue virus can be transmitted from human hosts who have been infected by the virus to the mosquitoes to be transmitted back to other humans. So that, it is possible for the virus to be transmitted to several surrounding locations. Aedes Aegypti is one of the dengue mosquitoes that likes a warm climate and not too wet or dry. In addition, many un-expected factors can cause a significant increase in the number of dengue fever cases. So that the number of dengue fever cases can increase significantly far different from other data. An observation data that has different characteristics from others is called outlier. The existence of outliers can indicate individuals or groups that have very different behavior from the most of the individuals of the dataset. Outlier data in a data set are often encountered in various kinds of data analysis. Frequently, outliers are removed to improve accuracy of the estimators. But sometimes the presence of an outlier has a certain meaning, which explanation can be lost if the outlier is removed. In this paper, modeling dengue fever cases using GSTAR(1;1) with outlier factors was firstly proposed.