Design of Robust Policies for Uncertain Natural Resource Systems: Application to the Classic Gordon-Schaefer Fishery Model

Abstract

Introduction. A critical challenge faced by sustainability science is to develop robust strategies to cope with highly uncertain social and ecological dynamics. The increasing intensity with which human societies utilize (limited) natural resources is fueling the global debate and urging the development of resource management methodologies/policies to effectively deal with very demanding socio-bio-economical issues. Unfortunately, despite concerted efforts by governments, many natural resources continue to be poorly managed. The collapse of many fisheries worldwide is the most notable example (Clark, 2006; Clark et al., 2006; Holland, Gudmundsson; Myers, Worm 2003; Sethi et al., 2005) but other examples include forests (Moran, Ostrom), groundwater basins (Shah, 2000), and soils (ISRIC, 1990). The suggested causes are varied but (Clark, 2006) highlights two: (1) lack of consideration of economic incentives actually faced by economic agents and (2) uncertainty associated with the dynamics of biological populations. In the case of fisheries, Clark notes that “complexity and uncertainty will always limit the extent to which the effects of fishing can be understood or predicted” (Clark, 2006, p. 98). This suggests that we need policies capable of effectively managing natural resource systems despite the fact that we understand them poorly at best. Real-World Management Issues. Real-world resource management must address three components: goal setting, practical (robust) implementation, and learning. Clark and others (Clark, 2007; 2006; Clark et al., 2006) have recently noted that practical implementation issues are frequently at the root of fishery management failures. For most fisheries, the necessary institutional contexts exist (Wilen, Homans) and we know what to do, yet management efforts fail. This suggests a need to focus on the actual process of resource management. For example, how can managers make decisions with incomplete information concerning how the resource and the resource users will respond to management actions? Design of Robust Policies for Uncertain Natural Resource Systems: Application to the Classic Gordon-Schaefer Fishery Model